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• What is TRIZ?
• Ideal Final Result
• Directed Product Evolution
• The 40 Inventive Principles
• Analogous Solutions
• The 39 Engineering Parameter

Directed Product Evolution (DPE)

Traditional technological forecasting tries to predict the "future characteristics of … machines, procedures, or techniques." It relies on surveys, simulations, and trends to create a probabilistic model of future developments. It gives a forecast, but does not invent the technology being forecasted.

Altshuller, by studying hundreds of thousands of patents, was able to determine eight patterns of how technological systems develop over time. Based upon the patterns of how people think rather than what people think, DPE is like a road map into the future. Rather than predicting future technologies, one can systematically invent future technologies using DPE. The eight patterns of Directed Product Evolution are given in Table 5. Examples will also be shown.

	Pattern	Example
1.	Technology follows a life cycle of birth, growth, maturity, decline.	Stage 1. A system does not yet exist, but important conditions for its emergence are being developed. Stage 2. A new system appears due to high-level invention, but development is slow. Stage 3. Society recognizes value of the new system. Stage 4. Resources for original system concept end. Stage 5. Next generation of system emerges to replace original system. Stage 6. Some limited use of original system may coexist with new system.	Case Study: Airplane 1. Manual attempts to fly fail. 2. Wright Brothers fly at 30mph in biplane. 3. Military use in WWI. Financial resources available. Speeds increase to 100mph. 4. Wood and rope frame aerodynamics reach limit. 5. Metal frame monoplane developed. 6. Several new types of airplanes have been developed but limited use of biplanes still exists.
2.	Increasing Ideality.	ENIAC computer in 1946 weighed several tons, took a whole room, and did computational functions. In 1995, Toshiba Portégé 610CT weighs 4.5 pounds and is capable of text processing, mathematical calculations, communications, graphics, video, sound.
3.	Uneven development of subsystems resulting in contradictions.	Subsystems have different life cycle curves. Primitive subsystems hold back development of total system. Common mistake is to focus on improving wrong subsystem. Poor aerodynamics were limitations of early planes but developers focused engine power instead of improving aerodynamics.
4.	Increasing dynamism and controllability.	Early automobiles were controlled by engine speed. Then manual gearbox, followed by automatic transmissions, and continuously variable transmissions (CVT.)
5.	Increasing complexity, followed by simplicity through integration.	Stereo music systems have evolved from adding separate components such as speakers, AM/FM radio, cassette player, CD player, etc. to integrated "boom box."
6.	Matching and mismatching of parts.	Early automobiles used leaf springs to absorb vibration. These were an assembly of unrelated or mismatched parts borrowed from horse carriages and whatever else was available. Later fine tuning allowed adjustments of the parts so that they mated into a matched system - the shock absorber. Purposely mismatch parts to create additional resources from the differences. An example of this might be using a bimetal spring that changed spring rates when a current is applied. Automatic matching and mismatching as needed. For example a computer controlled active suspension system.
7.	Transition from macrosystems to microsystems using energy fields to achieve better performance or control.	Development of cooking systems from wood burning stove to gas ranges to electric ranges to microwave ovens.
8.	Decreasing human involvement with increasing automation.	Development of clothes washing from washboard to washing machine with ringer to automatic washing machine to automatic washing machine with automatic bleach and softener dispensers.

By analyzing the current technology level and contradictions in our products, TRIZ can be used to see the evolutionary progress and create the future. For example, Altshuller was able to predict the future technology of glass plate manufacturing. The earlier process was to roll hot glass onto a conveyor. During this process, the glass would tend sag between the rollers resulting in waviness in the final product. Using pattern #7, Transition from Macro to Micro, Altshuller predicted that rollers would get smaller and smaller until they reached the theoretical limit of atom sized. Several years later, an English company introduced a new process of rolling the glass out on a bath of liquid tin.

Directed Product Evolution can be used to develop patents for future technology before one's competitors.

• What is TRIZ?
• Ideal Final Result
• Directed Product Evolution
• The 40 Inventive Principles
• Analogous Solutions
• The 39 Engineering Parameter

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